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In recent decades the world has experienced a significant increase in the number of patients with diabetes mellitus, primarily type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Parallel to this, the increase is mostly attributable to a significantly higher frequency of diabetes diagnosis in the age group younger than 60, but also younger than 35 years of age. The growing economic burden in complex socioeconomic structures becomes obvious. The development of the diabetes epidemic is predicted to have a significant impact on global economic growth. The situation requires fundamentally different approaches from national health care systems depending on national health care structures and their medical, environmental, social, and economic means. To respond rapidly in a coordinated fashion to the health threat of diabetes and its associated comorbidities, it is necessary to plan and prioritize high quality, standardized systems for diabetes prevention and care. This would ideally involve the development of a national diabetes program, with clearly defined goals, processes and responsibilities, which provides widely accessible diabetes prevention and care as part of the chronic care management system.
At the United Nations High-Level Meeting on Non-Communicable Diseases in September 2011 in New York, Ministers of Health requested international cooperation and policy decisions on diabetes according to the present context of globalization of health issues. There was a consensus across countries that national programs for prevention and control of chronic diseases have to be developed and implemented and that strategies to monitor progress on implementation needed to be established. In April 2012 the European Diabetes Leadership Forum was held, to discuss development of strategies on the political, medical, and patient-centered level for improving diabetes prevention, early detection, and management. Kofi Annan said at the meeting, “There is no other option than to act—we do not have enough money not to act.”
Currently, we are experiencing an epidemic growth in the number of people with diabetes worldwide. , An estimated 366 million people, corresponding to 8.3% of the world's adult population, have diabetes today, but the prevalence is expected to grow to 552 million by 2030, corresponding to 9.9% of the adult population (see also Chapter 1 ). This increase goes hand in hand with “westernization” of lifestyle, with consumption of more energy-dense food and decreasing physical activity. Driven by this development, diabetes affects more and more young people.
These changes have driven a huge increase in T2DM —the most common form of diabetes, particularly in young people, especially in their working age. The medical burden is rising as patients with diabetes are developing a growing number of metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities. The growing economic burden in complex socioeconomic structures becomes obvious. The continuation of the diabetes epidemic is predicted, and the World Economic Forum foresees the epidemic as a disaster likely to continue to worsen in the foreseeable future with a significant impact on global economic growth at least similar in scale to the recent banking crisis.
The number of people affected by chronic diseases globally necessitates better chronic care management. The central programs, including early detection and treatment strategies as well as investment into the development and implementation of prevention programs, focus on the prominence of lifestyle in the causal pathway of progression to diabetes and represent an opportunity to use lifestyle promotion as a preventive strategy and key line of defense against the rising tide of T2DM.
There is now consistent evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) across diverse countries and populations that lifestyle interventions, aimed at promoting physical activity, a healthy diet, and weight loss, can successfully reduce the risk of progression to T2DM by 30% to 60% in those with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). IGT is an intermediate condition between normal glucose regulation and T2DM and is associated with a substantially elevated risk of progression to T2DM. In 2001 the Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS) and in 2002 the U.S. Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) as well as the Da Qing IGT and Diabetes Study demonstrated that lifestyle modifications focused on losing weight, increasing physical activity, and improving diet could reduce the risk of progression to diabetes by almost 60%. Similar findings were also seen in India, Japan, and China. There was a strong dose-response effect for people who adopted four or five lifestyle changes; the progression rate after 7 years was reduced by 80% compared with those making no changes ( Fig. 5-1 ). There is consistent evidence that some pharmaceutical agents, such as metformin—a drug that is effective for glucose lowering in people with T2DM—can prevent the onset of diabetes in high-risk populations by 31% in people with IGT, , and other agents have also been proven to be effective, , but the evidence consistently suggests that lifestyle interventions are more effective than pharmacologic interventions in preventing the onset of T2DM.
Economic evaluation has demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of primary prevention of T2DM. However, despite the evidence, it remains questionable whether these programs are feasible at a population level. The challenge, therefore, is to establish a scientifically based structural framework for efficiently managing nationwide prevention programs.
Currently the evidence regarding short-term reduction of diabetes risk and conversion to T2DM in people with IGT is very good, but the major question remains how sustainable this effect may be. A recent report has summarized the long-term effect of T2DM prevention, pointing out a significant sustainability of the effect if the initial intervention was able to achieve lifestyle change. The first study suggesting a sustainable effect was the Malmö Feasibility Study. This study tested the effect of exercise and diet on incidence of T2DM among 161 men with IGT. After a 5-year study period, 11% of the men in the intervention group had developed T2DM compared with 29% of the men in the reference group who did not want to join in lifestyle intervention. After the 12 years of follow-up, all-cause mortality was significantly lower in the former intervention group (6.5/1000 versus 14.0/1000 person-years, P = 0.009) and was similar to that in healthy individuals without any glucose disturbance.
The Da Qing study undertaken in China included 577 men and women with IGT who were randomized into an intervention and a control group. The interventions included diet alone, exercise alone, and a combination of diet and exercise. The lifestyle intervention was for a period of 6 years and resulted in lower cumulative T2DM incidences in all three intervention groups (41% to 46%) compared with the control group (68%). It is interesting to note that the participants in the study were relatively lean, so that the weight reduction was relatively small. In the participating clinics assigned to the dietary intervention, the recommendation included a high-carbohydrate (55% to 65% caloric intake) and moderate-fat (25% to 30% caloric intake) diet. This study indicated that it is not body weight reduction alone that is important for the prevention of T2DM. Also, other lifestyle issues are important, and body weight may be a summary indicator for several dietary and activity factors. The 20-year follow-up of the study showed a sustained 43% reduction in the incidence of T2DM in the intervention group compared with the control participants. It is surprising to note that there was no significant effect in the reduction of cardiovascular disease or mortality, but a sustained effect in reducing the prevalence of microvascular disease in diabetes patients. The Da Qing study is the study with the longest follow-up. In essence, the study shows that lifestyle intervention enables a significant delay in the conversion to T2DM in those at risk and, for a period of at least 20 years, significantly prevents T2DM. For persons who develop T2DM, the intervention significantly reduces the development of microvascular complications. ,
The DPS was a multicentered trial carried out from 1993 to 2001 in Finland in five clinics. The main objective of the study was to test the effect of 3 years of lifestyle intervention on the incidence of T2DM compared with a control group; 522 men and women were recruited into the study and randomly allocated into a control and an intervention group. The reduction in incidence of T2DM was 58% associated with an average weight reduction of 4.5 kg in the intervention group versus 1.0 kg in the control group ( P < 0.001) after 1 year, and similar results were maintained after 3 years. Overall, visceral obesity, dietary habits, and exercise habits improved significantly and were independently associated with T2DM risk reduction. , The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6%-15%) in the intervention group and 23% (95% CI 17%-29%) in the control group after 4 years, and thus the risk of T2DM was reduced by 58% ( P < 0.001) in the intervention group compared with the control group. Subsequent analyses using data collected during the extended follow-up of the study showed that after a follow-up time of 7 years, a marked reduction in the cumulative incidence of T2DM was sustained, reaching a risk reduction of 43%. The corresponding incidence rates were 4.6/100 and 7.2/100 person-years between the intervention and control groups. The 10-year follow-up results of the effect of the lifestyle intervention in the T2DM prevention study included total mortality and cardiovascular risk and showed a significant reduction in total mortality but, similar to the findings of the Da Qing study, no effect on reducing cardiovascular morbidity. It is interesting to note that when the DPS intervention and control groups together were compared with a population-based cohort including people with IGT, adjusted hazard ratios were 0.21 (95% CI 0.09-0.52) and 0.39 (95% CI 0.20-0.79) for total mortality and 0.89 (95% CI 0.62-1.27) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.60-1.27) for cardiovascular morbidity. Thus the risk of death among the DPS participants was markedly lower than in a population-based IGT cohort.
The DPP was a U.S. multicenter randomized clinical trial. It compared the efficacy and safety of three interventions—an intensive lifestyle intervention, standard lifestyle recommendations combined with metformin, and placebo. The goals of the dietary intervention were to achieve and maintain a 7% weight reduction through consumption of a healthy low-calorie, low-fat diet and to engage in physical activities of moderate intensity (such as brisk walking) for 150 min/wk or more. The intensive lifestyle intervention reduced T2DM risk after a 2.8-year mean follow-up by 58% compared with the placebo control group. Lifestyle intervention was also shown to be superior to metformin treatment, which resulted in a 31% risk reduction for incident T2DM compared with placebo. At the 1-year visit, the mean weight loss was 7 kg (approximately 7%). After the publication of the main results in 2002, the randomized trial was stopped and the participants were invited to join the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS). During the follow-up, all participants, regardless of their original treatment group, were offered lifestyle counseling. During the overall follow-up of 10 years (calculating from the randomization to the DPP), T2DM incidence in the original lifestyle intervention group was reduced by 34% compared with the control group. However, during the postintervention follow-up, T2DM incidence was not statistically different between the treatment groups (5.9/100 person-years in the former intervention group and 5.6/100 in the placebo control group), confirming that lifestyle intervention that was initiated in the former placebo control group was successful even after several years of follow-up without any active intervention.
The question of who should be targeted for diabetes risk reduction is not easy to answer because the effect of an intervention program to prevent T2DM in adulthood depends on the setting where the intervention is performed, the effectiveness of the intervention in addressing the high-risk individual, accessibility and affordability, and a variety of additional variables. However, the main considerations when deciding who should be targeted for T2DM prevention are the effectiveness and affordability of the interventions available after the high-risk person has been identified. Screening for diabetes risk makes no sense without availability of a successful and sustainable intervention program. Interventions can have various approaches, strategies, and concepts. Furthermore, strategies for targeting people at high risk will vary significantly among different settings and different population groups. The risk factors for T2DM are well recognized, and T2DM is often preceded by a period of IGT that is characterized by increasing insulin resistance and beta cell dysfunction. Visceral obesity plays a key role in triggering the development of insulin resistance and increasing T2DM risk. It is also recognized that many people with T2DM remain undiagnosed and that patients with long diagnostic delays often have significant complications at diagnosis. This suggests that combined screening for both IGT and undiagnosed prevalent T2DM could be a pragmatic option. Indeed, data show that screening for both conditions together is cost-effective, particularly when lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions are then used to delay the onset of T2DM in high-risk individuals. Screening for T2DM and IGT in high-risk populations is now recommended by a number of international diabetes associations ; a plethora of tools are available to identify people at increased risk of T2DM, and there is little evidence of long-term, physical or psychological harm from such screening.
The consensus (based on screening approaches used in practice in the United States, Germany, Australia, Finland, the United Kingdom, and other countries) , seems to favor a targeted, staged approach with the first step being to identify those at high risk and a second step being to confirm glycemic status (whether T2DM, IGT, or normoglycemia). Preliminary data about this broad approach suggest that it is more cost-effective to use a noninvasive screening tool as the first stage in screening rather than a blood test. Risk scores tend to be based around risk factors such as age, gender, body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, family history of diabetes, and the use of antihypertensive medication. Risk scores have been shown to have good sensitivity and specificity for identifying diabetes risk. For example the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), the Danish Risk Questionnaire, the Cambridge Risk Score, the Leicester Diabetes Risk Score, and the Indian Score have all been associated with a sensitivity of 76% to 77% and specificity of 55% to 72%, with a positive predictive value varying from 7% to 11%. The most common approach used is the FINDRISC questionnaire, which individuals use to self-assess their risk based on seven questions; FINDRISC has been shown to have good validity at predicting future diabetes over a 10-year period. It is important to note that although FINDRISC has been validated for use in various countries, given the varying profile and prevalence of risk factors in different settings, the score performance cannot be generalized from one country to another. It is therefore important that risk scores be validated in the population in which they will be applied. The other approach is to use data that are routinely available to the general practitioner (e.g., the Cambridge Risk Score, the QDScore, the Leicester Practice Risk Score).
The second stage involves diagnostic testing. In practice, this usually consists of either a fasting glucose or a hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) test, although oral glucose tolerance testing can also be used. A recent statement by the International Expert Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) has advocated that an HbA1c of 6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or higher can now be used to define T2DM. However, there is no clear consensus on how or whether HbA1c should be used to classify diabetes risk below this level. The American Diabetes Association (ADA) tentatively suggested that an HbA1c value of 5.7% to 6.4% indicates a high risk of T2DM, whereas an international expert committee suggested a range of 6.0% to 6.4%. , The latter range was also recently endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the United Kingdom, which now recommends that HbA1c be used to identify those with a high risk of T2DM and that patients with a value of 6.0% to 6.4% be referred to a T2DM prevention program. Prospective data from the United Kingdom support the use of 6.0% to 6.4% to define an at- risk category, because individuals in this group were found to have a risk of future T2DM that was twice that in individuals with a value of 5.5% to 5.9%. However, other data from Germany suggest that an HbA1c threshold of 5.7% is likely to have the best sensitivity and specificity for detection of future T2DM risk but demonstrate that the combination of HbA1c and the 1-hour plasma glucose concentration after a 75-g oral glucose load in predicting future T2DM risk was significantly better in a multivariable model than either one of them alone. The 1-hour plasma glucose concentration has previously been shown to be a strong predictor of T2DM risk and also other chronic disease but has major logistical issues. Furthermore, the optimal HbA1c cut point for identifying individuals at increased diabetes risk is 5.7% and not 6.0% as originally suggested by the ADA Expert Committee. If HbA1c exceeding 6.0% had been used to identify individuals at increased risk for future T2DM, only about one third of patients who developed T2DM would have been identified. Thus, use of an HbA1c cut point of 5.7% together with the 1-hour plasma glucose concentration would identify many additional high-risk individuals who could benefit from an intervention program.
The most cost-efficient way to balance resources against risk has yet to be determined. In the meantime, the balance that is struck may depend to a large extent on pragmatic considerations, particularly financial constraints. It is acknowledged that, along with strategies for identification and intervention for those with a high risk of a widely prevalent condition such as T2DM, it is also fundamentally important to use initiatives that are aimed at shifting the distribution of known risk factors, such as BMI in adults or BMI percentiles in childhood and waist circumference within the population as a whole. Strategies for primary prevention on a public health level and high-risk strategies need to work in parallel.
Epidemiologic, experimental, and randomized controlled clinical study trial-level evidence has consistently demonstrated that levels of physical activity are centrally involved in the regulation of glucose homeostasis, independent of other factors including adiposity. , A modest increase in walking activity, toward levels that are consistent with the minimum recommendations, significantly improved 2-hour postload glucose levels by 23 mg/dL over 12 months in high-risk overweight and obese individuals despite the absence of any significant change in body weight or waist circumference. This may correspond to a greater than 60% reduction in risk of developing T2DM within 24 months. These findings were consistent with findings from other studies, but replication of the results is needed and attempts are under way. Although the promotion of physical activity is a cornerstone of effective T2DM prevention programs, the role of physical inactivity in helping identify T2DM risk is less clear and more problematic for several reasons. First, physical inactivity is highly prevalent among the general population; it has consistently been shown that 50% to 80% of the population in both developed and developing countries fails to meet the minimum recommendations for health. Indeed, when physical activity levels are objectively measured, rather than by subjective self-report, around 95% of the population fail to meet the minimum requirements for health, making inactivity a near universal condition. Therefore commonly used definitions of physical inactivity do not provide a clear mechanism for stratifying diabetes risk. Second, methods that rely on self-reporting by individuals of their activity levels are highly inaccurate and unreliable. For example, an internationally used and validated self-reported measure of physical activity described as little as 10% of the variation in objectively measured levels through accelerometry ; in contrast, simple measures of adiposity, such as BMI and waist circumference, are reasonably accurate on a population level. For these reasons, self-recording levels of physical (in)activity has not been shown to add to the predictive power of diabetes risk scores or to be useful when incorporated into other methods of quantifying diabetes risk. However, it is important that physical inactivity, as with other lifestyle variables, be considered for the individual assessments of T2DM risk.
To be successful, lifestyle intervention programs should focus on types of physical activity that are acceptable to most of the population. Walking has consistently been shown to be the most popular choice of physical activity, including in those with a high risk of T2DM. Indeed, walking for 150 min/wk during leisure time is associated with a 60% reduction in the relative risk of T2DM compared with those that did little or no walking in their leisure time. Of importance, walking is associated with fewer barriers than other forms of physical activity in black and minority ethnic populations dwelling in developed countries, such as South Asians.
Wearing a pedometer and keeping a daily step log have been widely advocated as effective self-regulatory strategies in the promotion of increased ambulatory activity, and their use has consistently been shown to successfully promote increased physical activity. The success of pedometer interventions is centered on the pedometer's ability to raise awareness of current activity levels, provide objective feedback to the individual, and facilitate clear and simple goal setting. To be effective, it is essential that realistic and personalized step-per-day goals be used; goals that are too ambitious can often be demotivating and lead to failure. Sedentary individuals (fewer than 5000 steps/day) should initially aim for an average increase in ambulatory activity of around 2000 steps/day conducted at a moderate to vigorous intensity, which is roughly equivalent to an additional 150 minutes of walking activity per week. Alternatively, the categories of ambulatory activity shown in Table 5-1 can be used to guide lifestyle interventions. For example, those in the sedentary or inactive categories could initially aim to increase their ambulatory activity by at least 2000 steps/day. Those in the moderate category could be encouraged to try and enter the high category, and those achieving the high or very high categories should be helped to at least maintain their activity levels. For people who have significant barriers to walking, such as joint problems, alternative forms of physical activity, such as cycling, water aerobics, or swimming, should be encouraged.
Category | Steps per Day |
---|---|
Sedentary | < 5,000 |
Low (typical of daily activity excluding volitional activity) | 5,000-7,499 |
Moderate (likely to incorporate the equivalent of around 30 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity per day) | 7,500-9,999 |
High (likely to incorporate the equivalent of around 45 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity) | 10,000-12,499 |
Very high (likely to incorporate the equivalent of over 45 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity) | > 12,500 |
Obesity is one of the most important risk factors for T2DM, and population trends in obesity and T2DM run in parallel. The pathophysiology of adiposity with regard to the development of T2DM is not fully understood; however, several mechanisms that may interact have been identified. Adipose tissue, especially the tissue surrounding internal organs (visceral fat), is today regarded as an active endocrine organ that secretes a variety of proinflammatory adipokines that act at both the local and the systemic levels. Cornier and colleagues have reported that increasing adipose tissue mass leads to changes in the secretion of these adipokines as well as increased turnover of free fatty acids, which bring on insulin resistance, the harbinger of metabolic disturbances leading to T2DM.
Even though the basic cause of excess body fat accumulation is an imbalance between energy intake (i.e., dietary intake) and expenditure, the factors predisposing to the development of overweight and obesity are multifactorial and poorly understood. Nevertheless, regular physical activity, high dietary intake of fiber, and reduced intake of energy-dense micronutrient-poor foods were identified by WHO as lifestyle targets for reducing obesity. In the DPS, the dietary energy density was found to be associated with achieved weight reduction, which supports the intuitive recommendation to increase foods with low energy density such as vegetables and fruits to increase satiety while reducing total energy intake. An increased understanding of these mechanisms will be helpful in providing prioritization of behavioral targets for future prevention programs.
For most people, weight reduction is difficult to sustain. Fortunately, T2DM prevention studies have shown that changing one's lifestyle is effective without significant weight reduction. , , An important contributor is physical activity; however, the composition of diet seems to be important as well. Epidemiologic studies have suggested that several dietary factors may either increase diabetes risk (e.g., intake of refined grains, red and processed meat, and sugar-sweetened beverages; heavy alcohol consumption) or decrease it (e.g., intake of whole-grain cereal, vegetables, legumes, nuts, dairy, and coffee; moderate alcohol consumption), independently of body weight change. The suggested mechanisms behind these observations include improvement of insulin secretion and/or insulin resistance as a result of reduced glycemia and lipidemia, reduced ectopic fat, reduced low-grade inflammation, changes in cell membrane phospholipids, and improvement of intestinal peptide secretion.
In addition to weight reduction and increased physical activity, the Finnish DPS aimed at reduced total and saturated fat intake and increased fiber density of the diet. The post hoc analyses showed that T2DM risk reduction was clearly associated with the achievement of these lifestyle goals. In the U.S. DPP study, dietary goals were reduced energy intake (to achieve weight reduction) and reduced total fat. The T2DM prevention studies from China, India, and Japan aimed at reduced fat, energy, alcohol, and refined carbohydrates and increased fiber. , , A recent study from Spain showed that adoption of a Mediterranean diet, characterized by a high intake of vegetables, fruits, legumes, extra virgin olive oil, nuts, fish, whole grains, and red wine, also decreases T2DM incidence remarkably, without body weight reduction.
A pragmatic way to prevent T2DM therefore would be to focus on diet composition and physical activity. A strict diet emphasizing dietary restriction and avoidance of certain food groups (e.g., sources of fat or carbohydrates) and aiming solely at weight reduction may be more efficient for achieving weight loss in the short term, but may not be sustainable in the long run. Diet may well vary according to food culture, food availability, and personal preferences and yet follow the same general principles:
High intake of vegetables and fruits should be encouraged.
Grain products should mainly be unrefined, with high natural fiber content.
Vegetable sources of fat with low saturated fat content (such as olive oil) should be preferred.
As a source of protein, nuts, legumes, dairy products, and fish should be favored and red meat limited.
The intake of highly processed foods (e.g., processed meat, sweetened beverages, confectionery) should be limited.
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